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企業のリスク管理を通じたブラック・スワンとグレイ・ライノウへの対応

著者:  Nehal Shah  - 07-17-2019 

灰色のライノウ(サイ)と黒いスワン(コクチョウ)がリスクマネジメントとどのように関係しているかについて話してみましましょう。サイは、私たちの安全にとって潜在的に危険な、大きな角のついた動物であることを承知しています。リスク管理の世界では、灰色のサイは、発生する可能性が非常に低いと考えられているために一般的には無視される、既知の危険な出来事のメタファーとされています。一方、1697年に比較的遅い時期に発見されたコクチョウは、未知のものや異常値を象徴しており、特定のリスクの可能性に対して、過去に納得のいく指摘ができないために、そのようなリスクがどのように見過ごされているかを示しています。

オン・セミコンダクターのエンタープライズ・リスクマネジメント(ERM)グループは、自社の「黒いスワン」と「灰色のライノウ」に対処するために、個人が集まった部門横断的なグループによる、年1回のオフサイトのエマージング(新たに発生する)リスクシナリオ計画セッションを開催し、新しい、あいまい、予期せぬ、または開発が遅いと考えられる、特定のエマージングリスクのシナリオを評価しています。今年の初めに、オン・セミコンダクターのリスクシナリオ計画セッションは、GartnerとNeuGroupによってベストプラクティスとして認められました。同社のケーススタディであるValue Driver Synario WorkshopがGartnerのウェブサイトに掲載されており、またNeuGroupの出版物「iTreasurer」には「Getting Ahead of Future Surprises」と題する記事が掲載されています。

エマージングリスク・セッションは、ERMプログラムのフレームワークの一部であり、より短期で、より戦術的な四半期毎のリスク評価を超えて、真に全体像で戦略的なものに見直すのに役立ちます。ERMグループは、エマージングリスク・セッションを運営することにより、下図に示すように、エマージングリスクが日常的に考慮されることを通常妨げる障害を克服するよう努めています。

各エマージングリスク・セッションは、ほとんど台本がなく、社内のステークホルダーからの様々な視点や考慮を許容しています。しかしながら、当面のトピックで議論されている各シナリオは、以下を考慮しています。

  • オン・セミコンダクターのバリュー・ドライバー とは、技術や製品、顧客、人材、評判など、企業全体の価値を高める、当社の事業活動における主要な要素やインプットとして定義できます。
  • 先行指標 とは、「はるかに遠い」リスクがすぐに発生し、リスクを管理または軽減するために行動が必要であることを、会社に具体的に示す信号です。

ERMグループはこれまで、地政学や自動運転車などのテーマについて、新たなリスクセッションを計画してきました。今年は、代表者による部門横断的なグループが、倫理と従業員構成に関する人工知能(AIとも呼ばれる)の開発とアプリケーションを検討しました。このセッションは、Microsoftの米国AI 戦略リード.からのプレゼンテーションで始まり、人間とAIの交差点について議論しました。倫理と従業員構成に関連した人工知能の開発とアプリケーションの影響に焦点を当てた2つのシナリオが議論されました。

コクチョウ、つまり潜在的なエマージングリスク、を無視したり見過ごしたりする自己満足と意欲は、おそらくすべての人にとって最大のリスクです。オン・セミコンダクターのERMグループは、灰色のサイと、それに併せて引き起こす可能性のある損害がいつ、どんなスピードでやってくるのかを評価することによって、貴重な対話を生み出し、エマージングリスクについて備えることを支援することを目指しています。

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